One of the top starting pitchers expected to hit the market this offseason is no longer available. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Padres star has agreed to a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, a signing that immediately reshapes both their winter plans and their long-term pitching outlook. The move ends months of speculation about where Cease would land and delivers one of baseball’s most electric arms to Toronto, where he’s projected to lead the rotation for years to come.
Cease has been regarded as one of the most sought-after pitchers in the game. Since establishing himself as a true frontline starter, executives have praised his rare combination of durability, elite stuff, and swing-and-miss ability—attributes that make him a standout in today’s pitching landscape. He began his MLB career with the Chicago White Sox, debuting in 2019 after being acquired as a prospect in the 2017 trade that sent José Quintana to the Cubs. Early on, he flashed high-end potential mixed with some inconsistency, but over the next few seasons he steadily grew into the dominant pitcher many believed he could become.
The Padres gave Cease a qualifying offer, a one-year, $22 million contract for 2026, which the pitcher unsurprisingly rejected. Once Cease’s contract with the Blue Jays is official, the Padres are entitled to draft-pick compensation — specifically, a pick after the completion of the fourth round of the next amateur draft in July.
Cease posted a 4.55 ERA in 32 starts this year. He allowed a career-high 21 home runs but proved as durable and deceptive as ever, making 32 starts and exceeding 200 strikeouts for the fifth consecutive season.
In spite of his relatively high ERA and 8-12 record, Cease was expected to command a hefty contract as one of the best available starters on the free agent market. His loss should hardly come as a surprise to the Padres.
Between Cease’s durability and on the mound and his high swing-and-miss rate (33.4 percent, more than any qualified MLB pitcher last season), the reigning American League champions had a good reason to bet big on the right-hander’s bounceback potential.
No pitcher has made more regular season starts over the last five seasons (162) or recorded more strikeouts (1,106). More than a mere innings-eater, Cease has a 3.72 ERA (114 ERA+) for the White Sox and Padres during his five-year run.
Cease’s contract sets a high bar for his peers on the free agent market. He was projected to get $189 million over seven years by MLB Trade Rumors. The difference might reflect the premium Toronto had to pay to attract a player to Canada, where taxes and the value of the dollar stretch paychecks a bit farther.
It might also reflect a robust free agent market for starting pitchers — one the Padres now find themselves swimming in without Cease. Free agent Michael King could also be pitching elsewhere in 2026 after a couple strong seasons in San Diego.
The Padres originally acquired Cease from the White Sox for prospect Drew Thorpe and pitcher Steven Wilson, pitcher Jairo Iriarte, outfielder Samuel Zavala on March 13, 2024.
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