Free agency is quickly approaching in the NFL, and as it nears, it seems increasingly unlikely that the Minnesota Vikings will take the chance of keeping quarterback Sam Darnold—or even attempt to trade him before he leaves.
On February 24, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell published an in-depth analysis of the situation facing Darnold and Minnesota, and his findings weren’t overly optimistic for either party.
The Vikings technically have a key asset that every team desires: a skilled quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, who is on a cost-effective rookie contract. This is even more beneficial considering the team’s projected salary cap space for 2025, which is expected to be around $59.5 million. This number could rise by about $25 million before free agency begins on March 12, as the overall league cap is expected to increase by $22-$26 million before that time.
That may seem like good news for the possibility of bringing Darnold back, whether on a long-term contract or through the franchise tag, but in reality, the situation is often the complete opposite.
Vikings Will Struggle to Find Place for Sam Darnold on Roster
The Vikings could opt to franchise tag Darnold, but that comes with risks. Despite having ample cap space, the $42.4 million franchise tag would take up a large chunk of their budget this year, restricting their financial flexibility until the situation is resolved. If Darnold agrees to the tag, Minnesota would likely be stuck with him as their starter for 2025, which would keep J.J. McCarthy on the bench and cost them another year of value from the rookie deal of their 2024 first-round pick.
Alternatively, the Vikings could try to trade Darnold after tagging him, but without a trade lined up, they risk locking into a deal they don’t truly want, eating up a significant portion of their cap space.
Opting for a long-term contract to keep Darnold in Minnesota, building on his impressive 4,300-yard, 35-TD performance in 2024, would undermine the potential advantage McCarthy offers in the team’s pursuit of a Super Bowl. In that case, the only logical move would be to trade McCarthy for draft picks to capitalize on his value.
Additionally, Darnold’s price tag is set to rise in the coming years because of the salary cap increase. Barnwell compared this situation to the recent contract Daniel Jones signed with the New York Giants as a reference point.
“In 2025, with the cap projected to come in around $280 million, the $40 million average salary for Jones would project to just under $50 million for Darnold,” Barnwell wrote. “I’d be surprised if his deal got quite that high, but two guaranteed years with $90 million locked in at signing would make sense.”
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