The Toronto Blue Jays are going through a pivotal offseason and could end up with little to show for it.
With their homegrown star, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., facing his final year of arbitration eligibility, the team may only have this winter to secure an extension before he enters free agency and attracts lucrative offers from several big-market teams.
Guerrero has reportedly set a deadline during spring training to finalize an extension with the team, and ESPN’s Paul Hembekides has suggested that the offer may not be sufficient.
“Feb. 18. That is Toronto’s first full-squad workout, and more importantly, the self-imposed deadline for extension talks between Vlad Jr. and the organization,” Hembekides wrote. “The Blue Jays must pay up to retain their homegrown star — they’ll offer him a $400 million extension within the next month, but he’ll reject their overtures and chase free agency instead.”
While a $400 million contract would be tempting, Guerrero has strong reasons to believe he could secure even more on the open market next winter. At just 25 years old, he’s already a four-time All-Star, a two-time Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove Award winner, with at least 26 home runs in each of the last four seasons.
By entertaining offers from teams like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and New York Mets, in addition to the Blue Jays, he could see his next deal reach $500 million, especially with recent high-profile contracts like those of Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani, which have soared to around $700 million.
“Guerrero, who turns 26 on March 16, is entering his walk year at an opportune time — he slashed .323/.396/.544 (166 OPS+) in 2024, which propelled him to a sixth-place American League MVP finish,” Hembekides added.
If the Blue Jays are unable to sign Guerrero to an extension before the season starts, it’s possible they will look to trade him. If the team looks to be out of playoff contention for the second straight year and the front office loses hope of retaining Guerrero beyond 2025, dealing him away for some kind of controllable value moving forward might be the savvy move.
But with a lucrative free agency looming next winter, teams might not be willing to part with too much to add him for just a portion of the 2025 season. Ultimately, the Blue Jays could be in a tough spot if they’re unable to match or exceed the largest offer for their homegrown superstar.
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