The Roki Sasaki saga is approaching its end. Several teams have reportedly been informed they will not be signing the Japanese right-hander, with Jeff Passan of ESPN confirming that the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays are the final three contenders. The Cubs are no longer in the race, as Mike Rodriguez has confirmed, and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic adds that the Cubs have been informed of their status.
It appears that today marked the day Sasaki and his representatives began notifying teams that had been eliminated. Earlier reports indicated that the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Diamondbacks would not be signing Sasaki. While the Mariners had been loosely linked to him at times, they did not make it to the final three.
Sasaki’s decision has been one of the biggest uncertainties of the offseason. Since he’s coming to MLB before turning 25, he qualifies as an amateur under MLB’s rules and is subject to the international bonus pool system. This means no team is automatically excluded based on financial factors, unlike with other free agents.
Each team is allotted a set pool of money for international amateurs, typically in the $5-8 million range this year, with smaller-market teams often receiving slightly larger pools. Teams can trade for additional pool space, but they cannot increase their initial allocation by more than 60%. A posting fee will also be owed to Sasaki’s former team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, but this will only add 20% to the signing bonus. As a result, teams have similar financial capabilities to offer Sasaki a few million dollars.
Therefore, Sasaki’s decision will likely hinge on factors beyond just money. If financial gain were his main priority, he could have waited until he turned 25, following the path of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who landed a $325 million deal with the Dodgers.
The Dodgers and Padres have long been considered strong contenders for Sasaki. Both teams are on the West Coast, closer to Japan, which may be a significant consideration for Sasaki and his family when it comes to travel. The Dodgers also have a strong reputation, having made the postseason every year since 2013 and winning the World Series in 2024. The Padres, while not as consistently successful, have been competitive in recent years.
Both teams also have Japanese players on their rosters, with the Dodgers featuring Yamamoto and Ohtani, and the Padres having Yu Darvish. Some reports suggest Sasaki and Darvish have a particularly close relationship.
The Blue Jays, by contrast, have been considered a less likely landing spot. They’re not on the West Coast, and while they were competitive from 2020 to 2023, they had a down season in 2024. They also no longer have a Japanese player on the roster, having traded Yusei Kikuchi before the 2024 season.
In April 2023, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that some Japanese players are uncomfortable being teammates with other Japanese players due to the cultural significance of seniority in Japan. Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, however, has downplayed the importance of a team’s Japanese roster, saying that it was never a topic of discussion.
Sasaki may also be attracted to playing in a smaller market for other reasons. Wolfe has suggested that the Japanese media has not been kind to Sasaki, which could make a quieter market more appealing. While Toronto is not exactly a small market, it’s farther removed from the U.S. media spotlight. Additionally, the Blue Jays are owned by Rogers Communications, which could provide a more controlled media environment. Toronto is also known for its diversity and relatively low crime rates.
These possibilities are speculative, just as the reasons for Sasaki potentially preferring Los Angeles or San Diego remain unclear. Sasaki and Wolfe have kept their decision-making process private, leaving the baseball world to speculate.
Whatever Sasaki decides will likely have ripple effects across the offseason. The Padres, with a tight budget and roster needs, could look to trade Dylan Cease if they sign Sasaki. The Dodgers, already deep in their rotation, might also explore trades. The Blue Jays, still in search of a starting pitcher, could also be affected.
Sasaki’s decision will also impact other teams. The club that signs him will likely have to forgo commitments to Latin American teenagers and redirect bonus funds to Sasaki, leading those players to seek new teams. Some of this has already begun, as the Pirates are reportedly planning to sign Darell Morel, a Dominican shortstop who was previously committed to the Dodgers.
The clock is ticking, as Sasaki’s posting window closes on January 23, meaning a resolution is imminent. While Sasaki can’t officially sign until January 15, when the new international signing period starts, an agreement could be announced even sooner.
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