After the Milwaukee Brewers’ season ended early in October, it quickly became clear that the team was about to lose two key players. Willy Adames was heading to free agency, and Devin Williams was expected to be traded. Both departures have now been finalized. Adames signed a massive seven-year deal with the Giants before the Winter Meetings, and a week later, Williams was traded to the New York Yankees.
In return, the Brewers received Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin, filling gaps in the starting rotation and infield. However, the Brewers’ offseason moves are far from over. With plenty of activity still expected, including nearly acquiring Garrett Crochet earlier in the week, the focus now shifts to who could be the next player to move.
1. Aaron Civale
The Brewers typically avoid carrying players into their final season before free agency, opting to trade them early to gain some value. With Nestor Cortes now added to the mix, the Brewers have two veteran starters—Cortes and Aaron Civale—entering their last season of arbitration before free agency.
Though some might think the Brewers could flip Cortes for a more controllable starter, that seems less likely. GM Matt Arnold has praised Cortes’ leadership, which could be especially valuable after the departure of Adames. Cortes is expected to earn $7.7 million next year, and the Yankees sent $2 million in cash with him. Civale, acquired in July, is projected to earn about $8.0 million in 2025, making Cortes the cheaper option. Trading Civale could free up space for younger pitchers like DL Hall and Aaron Ashby, who are pushing for rotation spots.
I previously estimated the chance of a Civale trade at 20%, and I still think that figure holds. It’s not as obvious as Williams’ trade, but there’s logic to it.
2. Tyler Black
Tyler Black has shown strong numbers in the minors and boasts a solid prospect pedigree, but his path to regular playing time with the Brewers remains unclear. Defensively, he doesn’t meet the team’s standards at second or third base, and while he’s decent at first base, his offensive performance hasn’t been enough to secure a starting role.
The Brewers need more power in their lineup, and Black doesn’t bring much in that regard. He’s more known for his bat-to-ball skills, on-base percentage, and stolen bases, but Milwaukee already has plenty of players with similar skill sets, including the recently acquired Caleb Durbin.
The Brewers were also involved in serious discussions with the White Sox for Garrett Crochet, which would’ve required a high price in prospects. Black, a highly regarded prospect in need of a clear role, would be a natural trade target for teams looking for young talent.
I initially pegged Black’s trade chances at 10%, but now I think it’s closer to 20%. While the Brewers could keep him as a backup to Rhys Hoskins at first base in 2025, they might be open to moving him if it means acquiring another player without depleting their prospect pool.
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