This offseason, the St. Louis Cardinals have been at the center of various MLB rumors, all suggesting that the team is shifting towards a long-term strategy by revamping both the roster and the farm system. With the front office aligned on this approach, it seems that a major trade is likely to occur in the near future.
The St. Louis Cardinals have already bid farewell to Paul Goldschmidt, the All-Star first baseman who joined the team in 2019. His contract expired this offseason, and the team has decided to let him enter MLB free agency. Now, All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado may be the next key hitter to depart.
Nolan Arenado stats (ESPN): .272/.325/.394, .719 OPS, 16 home runs, 71 RBI
Arenado, who will be 34 in April, is coming off his worst season of his career. He recorded his fewest home runs in a full season since his rookie year in 2013. Additionally, he had an OPS below .800 for the second year in a row and posted a career-low slugging percentage of .394.
The 10-time Gold Glove Award winner is also no longer the elite third baseman he once was. In his 33rd season, Arenado ranked in the 86th percentile for Baseball Savant’s Fielding Run Value, marking the second straight year he has finished below the 90th percentile. With St. Louis undergoing a multi-year transition, there is no clear long-term role for Arenado.
According to Katie Woo of The Athletic, there’s an increasing belief around MLB that Arenado will be traded this offseason, with enough interested teams to make a deal possible. However, a trade likely won’t happen until after the initial wave of MLB free agency.
Arenado’s contract includes a $21 million salary for 2025, $16 million for 2026, and $15 million for 2027, along with a $3 million annual deferred salary from 2032 to 2041. Trade discussions are expected to pick up during the MLB Winter Meetings, especially after free-agent third basemen like Alex Bregman and Willy Adames sign. Once those top bats are off the market, teams are likely to shift their focus to acquiring Arenado.
A key factor that could boost the trade market is Arenado’s reported openness to switching to first base. For teams with a need at that position, or those who see a move across the infield as a way to extend his career, this could attract more suitors. While a trade would mark the end of an era in St. Louis, it would also signal the start of a necessary rebuild for the Cardinals.
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