The Green Bay Packers have already initiated a new phase at running back by parting ways with Aaron Jones and bringing in Josh Jacobs, but another significant shift might be on the way.
On September 2, Seth Walder of ESPN forecasted that MarShawn Lloyd will take over as the Packers’ starting running back before the season ends, despite Green Bay signing Jacobs, a former All-Pro, to a four-year, $48 million contract in the offseason.
Walder wrote, “MarShawn Lloyd will become the top running back by the end of the season. Although Josh Jacobs was highly effective in 2022, his rushing yards over expectation were negative in 2020, 2021, and 2023. Last season, his RYOE was minus-86. I believe 2022 was an anomaly for Jacobs, and the Packers will prefer Lloyd as their primary back by December.”
Josh Jacobs Faces a Crucial Year with the Packers
The Packers’ decision to potentially replace Jacobs with Lloyd might not be as costly as it seems due to the structure of Jacobs’ contract.
Jacobs’ $48 million deal is actually a pricey one-year contract because only $12.5 million is guaranteed. This means Jacobs needs to prove himself this year to justify his future salary cap hits.
Conversely, Lloyd, a third-round rookie from USC, signed a four-year contract worth just $5.8 million. Jacobs must not only perform well to keep Lloyd at bay but also exceed expectations given the rookie’s more favorable financial terms.
Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards in 2022 with 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns, though his performances in the years before and after were less impressive, and he missed six games over the past two seasons.
AJ Dillon’s Neck Injury Gives MarShawn Lloyd a Clear Path
Lloyd averaged 7.1 yards per carry with 820 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns in his only season at USC, and he caught 13 passes for 232 yards. He would have faced competition from AJ Dillon for the RB2 spot if Dillon hadn’t suffered a season-ending neck injury during the preseason. Now, Lloyd is positioned as the clear backup behind Jacobs.
Lloyd injured his hamstring in the Packers’ preseason opener and missed the rest of the preseason, with some speculating he might be placed on IR.
Dillon, who re-signed with the Packers on a one-year, $2.75 million contract after a lackluster 2023 season, has missed his chance to secure the starting role. As a result, Lloyd is well-positioned to potentially take over the starting job and hold it for the long term.
If Walder’s prediction holds true and Jacobs doesn’t meet expectations, Lloyd only needs to perform adequately to secure the starting position and fend off future challengers.
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